World Cup 2026 Predictions: Who Advances From Every Group

We published the group-by-group guide last week. It explained the draw, identified the key matches, and asked the questions that the tournament will answer. This article does what the guide deliberately did not: it picks sides.

Every group winner. Every runner-up. Every third-placed team that sneaks through. Every team that goes home after three matches. These predictions will age badly. All predictions do. The point is not accuracy — it is the argument. The World Cup begins in five days. Here is what we think happens.

Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia

Winner: Mexico
Runner-up: Czechia
Third (advances): South Korea
Out: South Africa

Mexico win their group at home. The Azteca advantage is real — two of three matches on Mexican soil, a crowd that will make the stadium feel like a continental qualifier rather than a neutral venue. Czechia, back after 20 years with Schick and Souček leading a squad that survived two playoff shootouts just to get here, arrive with the kind of battle-tested confidence that often decides tight groups. South Korea have the European-based squad and tournament pedigree to advance, but a draw-heavy campaign against Mexico's crowd and Czechia's physicality could leave them third despite being one of the strongest teams in the round of 32. South Africa are improved but remain the group's most limited team.

The call: Mexico top the group. Czechia's urgency earns them second. South Korea advance through the third-place route.

Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Winner: Switzerland
Runner-up: Canada
Third (advances): Bosnia and Herzegovina
Out: Qatar

Switzerland are the most reliable tournament team in this group — consistent, defensively sound, and experienced at navigating group stages without drama. Canada will advance on home soil, but the pressure of co-hosting may prevent them from finishing first. Bosnia, with Džeko and the momentum of knocking out Italy in the playoffs, have enough quality to claim third. Qatar's 24-goal qualifying deficit is too large a problem to solve in three matches.

The call: Switzerland win the group on goal difference. Canada advance. Bosnia sneak through as one of the best third-placed teams.

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

Winner: Brazil
Runner-up: Morocco
Third (advances): Scotland
Out: Haiti

Brazil are five-time champions, and the tournament pressure that has followed them since 2002 does not diminish the fact that they remain one of the most talented squads in the competition. The young core — Vinícius Jr, Rodrygo, Endrick — has the quality to win this group, and the opening match against Morocco at MetLife will set the tone. Morocco's 2022 semifinal was not a fluke, and they will push Brazil hard, but finishing second in this group is not a failure for a team building toward sustained contention. Scotland will be organized and physical — a draw against either Brazil or Morocco would be enough to qualify through the third-place route. Haiti return after 52 years — their presence alone carries weight.

The call: Brazil top the group. Morocco qualify comfortably. The best group-stage match of the tournament is Brazil vs Morocco on June 13 at MetLife.

Group D: USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey

Winner: USA
Runner-up: Turkey
Out: Australia, Paraguay

The co-hosts win their group. Pochettino's squad has the talent, the home crowd, and the preparation time that visiting teams cannot match. Turkey are the dangerous second — Arda Güler and Hakan Çalhanoğlu give them a level of individual quality that Australia and Paraguay cannot replicate. Australia will fight — Popovic's squad has the fearlessness of youth — but 17 debutants at a World Cup is a steep learning curve. Paraguay, back after 16 years, will struggle against the pace of this group.

The call: USA win the group. Turkey qualify comfortably. The home advantage is real, and Pochettino's preparation time — four years building toward this tournament — gives the hosts an edge that visiting teams cannot replicate in three weeks of acclimatization.

Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador

Winner: Germany
Runner-up: Ivory Coast
Third (advances): Ecuador
Out: Curaçao

Germany must advance from this group. After group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, a third consecutive early departure would be a national crisis. Nagelsmann's rebuild has been convincing, and Jamal Musiala is the player around whom the entire system is constructed. Ivory Coast, reigning African champions, are the group's genuine contender — pace, power, and a collective confidence that AFCON titles provide. Ecuador's counter-attacking quality gives them a path to third. Curaçao, the tournament's smallest nation, will savor every moment.

The call: Germany win the group and restore some pride. Ivory Coast are the team nobody wants to draw in the round of 32. Ecuador squeeze through as a best third-placed team.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

Winner: Netherlands
Runner-up: Sweden
Third (advances): Japan
Out: Tunisia

The Netherlands have the most complete squad in this group: Gakpo, Simons, Timber, De Vrij. Koeman's system prioritizes control, and in a group where pressing intensity will be high, the team that manages the ball best will finish on top. Sweden are the pick for second — and the logic is tactical rather than reputational. They beat Poland 3-2 in the playoff final, play with a defensive structure that neutralizes more talented opponents, and have the kind of tournament discipline that rewards consistency over brilliance. Japan's 2022 wins over Germany and Spain came through explosive pressing in individual matches, but a three-game campaign against the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia demands sustained performance rather than single-match intensity. Japan have the talent to top any group on their day, but their day may not come three times in a row. A third-place finish with enough points to advance is the likeliest outcome. Tunisia will be organized but lack the attacking quality to progress.

The call: Netherlands win the group on control. Sweden's structure earns them second. Japan progress despite finishing third and remain dangerous in the knockout rounds.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Winner: Belgium
Runner-up: Egypt
Out: Iran, New Zealand

Belgium's golden generation has aged, but aged is not finished. De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Courtois remain, and the squad around them — younger, less proven — has enough tournament experience from recent cycles to navigate a group of this difficulty. Egypt bring Mohamed Salah, and his presence alone makes them the most dangerous second-seeded team in the tournament. If Salah is fit and firing, Egypt will push Belgium hard for the top spot. The margin between first and second in this group may come down to a single match.

Iran, without Azmoun, with a domestic league shut down since February, with a squad shaped by war and political exclusion, will fight for every point. But the goal-scoring gap is too wide. New Zealand will compete without threatening the top two.

The call: Belgium's experience edges it. Egypt qualify and give the tournament one of its most compelling individual storylines in Salah.

Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

Winner: Spain
Runner-up: Uruguay
Out: Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde

The most predictable group in the tournament — but predictable does not mean uninteresting. Spain are European champions with a generational core that won Euro 2024 and has only improved since. Uruguay under Bielsa have the tactical intensity and the individual quality — Valverde, Ugarte, Pellistri — to handle anyone outside the top five. Saudi Arabia carry the memory of beating Argentina in 2022, but their entirely domestic squad limits their ceiling against European-level opposition. Cape Verde's debut will be celebrated regardless of results — a nation of 600,000 at the World Cup is the story, not the scoreline.

The call: Spain win the group without anxiety. Uruguay secure second with a performance that reminds everyone they are two-time World Cup champions for a reason. The margin between them and the rest of the group is wider than any other group in the tournament.

Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway

Winner: France
Runner-up: Senegal
Third (advances): Norway
Out: Iraq

France have the most talented squad in the tournament. Mbappé, Griezmann, Tchouaméni, Saliba, Dembélé — the depth is obscene. Senegal are the strongest West African team in the competition and have the tactical discipline to finish second. Norway have Haaland and Ødegaard, which is enough quality to beat Iraq and potentially steal points from Senegal, but not enough depth to sustain a challenge over three matches. Iraq return after 40 years and will compete without the squad depth to survive.

The call: France win every match. Senegal qualify. Norway advance on points, carried by Haaland's goals.

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

Winner: Argentina
Runner-up: Austria
Third (advances): Algeria
Out: Jordan

Argentina are defending champions. Messi at 38, in his sixth World Cup, leading a squad that has won a World Cup, a Copa América, and a Finalissima in the past four years. Austria are organized, physical, and qualified comfortably through the European group stage — a team that has spent an entire qualifying cycle outperforming expectations rather than chasing them. That kind of structure and cohesion earns results in tournament football. Algeria, with passionate diaspora support in the northeastern United States, have enough individual quality to compete but Austria's tactical discipline and European-level match fitness give them the edge for second. Jordan, at their first World Cup, are here to announce themselves.

The call: Argentina win the group at a canter. Austria's consistency earns them second. The Argentina vs Algeria atmosphere is still the loudest of the group stage.

Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia

Winner: Portugal
Runner-up: Colombia
Out: DR Congo, Uzbekistan

Portugal have arguably the best midfield trio in world football. Vitinha and João Neves just won the Champions League with PSG. Bruno Fernandes just won the Premier League's Player of the Season. Add Rafael Leão and Cristiano Ronaldo, who may be playing in his final World Cup, and the squad depth is formidable. The Ronaldo question will define this group: whether his presence elevates or constrains the team. But the midfield alone is enough to win it. Colombia enter the tournament on a longer unbeaten run than most of the favorites and play with the confidence of a team that no longer views a quarterfinal as success. Their attacking band of James Rodríguez, Luis Díaz, and Jhon Arias is among the most creative in the tournament, and their 2024 Copa América run was not a ceiling but a foundation. DR Congo return after 52 years and will compete. Uzbekistan qualified through AFC but are outmatched at this level.

The call: Portugal's midfield decides the group. Colombia qualify and remain dangerous in the knockouts.

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

Winner: England
Runner-up: Croatia
Third (advances): Ghana
Out: Panama

England have the deepest squad in the tournament. Bellingham, Saka, Rice, Kane, Tuchel's tactical discipline — the pieces are in place. Croatia, with Modrić at 40, may be playing their last major tournament as a golden generation. The 2018 semifinal rematch on June 17 in Dallas is the key match: the result will determine the group winner and may determine whether Croatia's farewell tour continues or ends in the group stage. Ghana have the individual talent — Semenyo, Kudus, Inaki Williams — to take points from both Croatia and England, and a win over Panama should be enough to advance through the third-place door. Panama will fight but are the group's most limited team.

The call: England win the group. Croatia qualify. Modrić gets one more knockout round.

The bracket picks

Quarterfinals

France vs Netherlands
France's depth overwhelms Dutch control. Koeman's system is built to manage matches, not to chase them. Mbappé ensures the Netherlands are chasing from the first half.

Spain vs USA
The co-hosts' run ends against the tournament's best possession side. Pochettino's squad will compete, but Spain's midfield — Pedri, Rodri, Gavi — suffocates teams that need the ball to create.

England vs Brazil
The most watchable quarterfinal on the bracket. Bellingham and Saka against Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo. England's defensive discipline under Tuchel edges a Brazil side still searching for the tournament identity it lost in 2002.

Portugal vs Argentina
Ronaldo vs Messi, one last time. The PSG midfield trio gives Portugal the advantage in the middle of the pitch. Argentina's belief carries them deep, but the squad depth is thinner than 2022. Portugal's talent across every position is the difference.

Semifinals

France vs Spain
A rematch of the Euro 2024 semifinal. Spain won that one. France win this one. Mbappé at a World Cup semifinal is a different proposition from Mbappé at the Euros. France have the speed to break Spain's press and the depth to survive 120 minutes if necessary.

Portugal vs England
Tuchel's system against the best midfield in the tournament. England will control possession. Portugal will control the moments that matter. Vitinha, João Neves, and Bruno Fernandes dictate the tempo in the second half, and Portugal reach the final on the strength of a midfield performance that announces them as the tournament's most complete unit.

Final

France vs Portugal

Winner

France

Mbappé against Vitinha and João Neves — his PSG teammates on the other side of the pitch. Ronaldo at 41, in his final World Cup match, against the nation that has denied him more than any other. France win at MetLife Stadium on July 19 because they have something no other team in this tournament possesses: the ability to win ugly, win beautifully, and win when nothing is working. Tactical flexibility under Deschamps, depth across every position, and a squad that has played in two of the last three World Cup finals. The third time, they do not lose. Mbappé's coronation. Ronaldo's farewell. The tournament ends where the logic has been pointing all along.

That is the prediction. The tournament will ignore it completely. They always do.

Five days. Forty-eight teams. One hundred and four matches. We have picked every group winner, every runner-up, and every team going home early. We have picked the final. We have picked the winner. The only thing we have not picked is the moment that changes everything — the goal nobody expected, the upset nobody predicted, the penalty that hits the post and bounces the wrong way. That moment is why the World Cup exists. It is also why predictions exist: to be proven wrong in the most spectacular way possible.