Shape of the Week · weekly
ADO Den Haag Stun PSV
Week of Oct 19 · built from GoalPost's own numbers
ADO Den Haag beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1, a result GoalPost gave just a 6% chance before kickoff.
Brighton & Hove Albion are still getting more out of games than their play deserves: across 7 recent matches, they have finished about 1.8 goals a game better off than the chances they created and allowed would suggest.
That usually rides on hot finishing or big goalkeeping, and it is hard to keep up.
Since Wouter Vrancken replaced Derek McInnes, Heart of Midlothian have taken 0.73 points a game across 11 matches, down from 2.14 across 22 matches under the previous manager.
That is about 14 fewer points every 10 games.
Lyon are leaning more on interceptions, and less on tackles, to win the ball back: interceptions are 38% of their tackles and interceptions, up from 33% a week ago.
River Plate are going the other way, with interceptions at 34% of their tackles and interceptions, down from 39% a week ago.
What it reads
Earlier editions
- LASK’s shots on target slippedWeek of Oct 12
- Charlotte FC's finishing keeps bailing them outWeek of Oct 5
- Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves produced the week's biggest forecast miss, with a Brier score of 1.400 against GoalPost's pre-match forecast.Week of Aug 24
- FC Nordsjaelland’s goal threat moved from 13 to 56 over the past week.Week of Aug 3
- San Diego’s possession share jumped from 24 to 62 over the past week.Week of Jul 27