Shape of the Week · weekly
Shape of the Week
Last edition · Week of Aug 24 · built from GoalPost's own numbers
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves produced the week's biggest forecast miss, with a Brier score of 1.400 against GoalPost's pre-match forecast.
That was the cleanest break from expectation on the board.
Since Philippe Clement took over from Liam Manning at Norwich, points per game have moved from 0.20 over 10 matches to 1.73 over 26, a shift that has changed the shape of their season.
Elsewhere, Arouca have outscored their underlying process by 2.07 goals per game on average over their last 3 matches this season, while Cambuur have gone the other way and underperformed theirs by 2.28 goals per game over the same stretch.
Wolfsberger AC have been the most unsettled side in the group, with a starting lineup that has changed significantly match to match over their last 4 games and a continuity score of 0.00 out of 1.0.
Different stories, same theme: the numbers have been moving in obvious directions, and not all of them line up with the underlying picture.
What it reads